Global Growth: Recent projections put global GDP growth at 3.0% in 2025 (IMF, Scope Ratings), a marginal deceleration from last year. The US slowdown is notable, with Q2 data showing consumption softening and imports declining after tariff shocks. Eurozone activity has rebounded slightly — July’s composite PMI hit an 11-month high at 51.0 — but inflation remains above central bank targets

Inflation: US consumer prices rose 2.7% y/y in June, with expectations of an uptick to 2.8% for July. The eurozone sees inflation steady at 2% headline, 2.3% core. UK services inflation stays stubborn above 4% as the Bank of England proceeds cautiously after a recent 25bp cut.

Global Equities: US and Japan equities hit fresh records; Nasdaq 100 climbs on continued AI/tech strength; S&P 500 trades at 6,389.45 (+0.8%), Dow at 44,175.61 (+0.47%) as of open

UK Market: FTSE 100 holds above 9,000 after posting strong July gains, aided by dollar strength and robust US earnings. Large-cap UK stocks outperform despite macro headwinds, but FTSE 250 and small caps lag on weak domestic data

Sector Focus: AI/tech, media, and telecom lead gains; chemicals and energy lag as crude prices soften

Oil: Brent crude slips to $66.19, WTI to $63.42 after shedding more than 4% last week. Sentiment is bearish, with markets eyeing US–Russia peace talks that may ease Russian oil sanctions and increase global supply

Gold: Surges to $3,534/oz before easing to around $3,440; safe-haven demand grows amid tariffs and inflation risks. Recent confusion over potential US tariffs on gold bars triggered record futures

Agriculture: Ukrainian grain exports fall 55% YoY; Russian wheat production forecasts revised up. Wheat prices are forecast to peak at $203/mt in August due to weather and trade volatility

Dollar: USD slips ahead of US inflation data and rising odds of a Fed rate cut. DXY retreats; EUR/USD trades at 1.1640, rebounding over 2% from its August lows, as the euro holds neutral-to-positive bias within the 1.16–1.17 range

GBP: Rallies after the BoE’s cautious cut; GBP/USD at 1.3448. Markets price in less certainty for further rate cuts in 2025, supporting the pound

Yen: JPY regains ground as BoJ signals rate hikes on strong domestic demand and global uncertainty

Emerging FX: Currency volatility persists, with the yuan showing stability relative to the dollar in crisis periods; diversification remains essential in emerging market hedging

US Treasuries: 10-year yield sits near 4.25%. The 30-year yield fell to 4.84% on August 11, a slight decline, while expectations for rate cuts are rising after soft labour data

UK Gilts: 10-year Gilt yield holds at 4.60%; consensus is for gradual, rather than aggressive, easing after inflation surprises. Markets now reflect less certainty for additional BoE cuts this year

Credit/High Yield: US high yield spreads remain tight (286bps), with yields above 7%. Technical are strong, default rates remain low, and carry remains attractive for the balance of 2025

Bitcoin: Up 10% in August, trading above $121,000 as of August 11. Market cap approaches $4 trillion. Institutional inflows surge following policy support (401(k) inclusion), and technical show consolidation around $118,000–$120,000 with the next major resistance at $123,000.

Ethereum: Outpaces rivals, surges above $4,300, its highest in four years, boosted by corporate and treasury buying

Outlook: Optimism persists despite macro uncertainty. Volatility could rise if US inflation data influences Fed rate cut expectations or signals fresh macro shocks. Key altcoins show strong momentum, but Bitcoin’s dominance has slightly declined as capital rotates into ETH and others

Upcoming Data: US inflation (CPI out Tuesday, August 12), US PPI Thursday, UK GDP Thursday, RBA decision this week, earnings from Chinese tech giants, and potential headline shocks from the Trump-Putin summit

Geopolitical Risk: Oil prices and Russia-related assets remain headline-driven due to ongoing peace negotiations and tariff dynamics

Positioning: Maintain tilt toward quality growth (AI/tech), favour commodities exposed to supply constraints, diversify FX risk across major and select EM pairs, and consider intermediate-duration bonds with high carry. Crypto allocations favour core BTC/ETH with selective exposure to liquid altcoins

Risks: Trade war escalation, sticky inflation, central bank policy errors, geopolitical shocks

Opportunities: Select equities in AI/tech and resilient services sectors, short-duration bonds for carry, commodity exposure (gold, wheat), and constructive medium-term crypto allocation