Executive Summary
Stocks remain at record highs in the US, lifted by tech momentum and supportive Fed policy, but the crypto market continues its pullback with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all facing selling as risk sentiment cools. Today’s focus: Fed Chair Powell’s speech, renewed market volatility, and critical PMI reports shaping the global macro outlook.
Markets Overview
Equities
Wall Street Rally: S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all posted fresh record closes Monday. Tech led gains, with Nvidia announcing a $100B partnership with OpenAI - fueling further AI optimism
Momentum: All three major US indices have rallied for three consecutive sessions; however, early futures signaled hesitancy amid stretched valuations
Global Moves: Asian markets mixed, Europe poised for a higher open on AI optimism. UK’s FTSE and Germany’s DAX marginally positive. Japan closed for a holiday
Bonds & Forex
Treasury Yields: 10-year US Treasury steady at 4.14% as major central banks pause but warn of sticky inflation
FX: Dollar index at 97.34, snapping a three-day winning streak. EUR/USD at 1.1796. GBP and JPY also claimed small gains against the greenback
Commodities
Gold: Hits another record, trading near $3,750/oz as safe-haven demand stays robust and investors hedge against policy uncertainty and renewed inflation risk
Oil: Remains range-bound ($62–67/bbl); OPEC+ supply and China demand remain key uncertainties.
Crypto Markets
Broad Weakness: The global crypto market cap dropped 2.2% overnight to $3.88 trillion.
Bitcoin: Down to $112,279, a 2% 24hr drop; technical weakness puts focus on the $110k support zone
Ethereum: Fell sharply to $4,182, down 2.8% on the day. Major resistance above $4,400 remains a challenge with near-term bearish momentum
Solana: Suffered the sharpest loss among large-caps—down 7.7% to $216, as profit-taking and broader altcoin outflows weigh
Sentiment: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 40 ("Neutral"), reflecting heightened but not panicked caution
Drivers:
Renewed profit-taking post-Fed decision, liquidity rotation back to traditional assets, and technical selling.
Investors closely watching for Powell’s tone today—any hawkish hint could intensify downside pressure.
Key Events & Outlook
Today’s Highlights
Fed Chair Powell Speech: Markets are bracing for heightened volatility depending on whether Powell is more hawkish or dovish in his comments
US & Eurozone PMIs: Fresh business survey data out today will offer new signals on global growth and inflation
Outlook – Scenarios
Theme | Bullish Case (Dovish Powell/Strong PMIs) | Bearish Case (Hawkish Powell/Weak PMIs) |
|---|---|---|
Stocks | Tech/growth extend rally, new records, global rotation | Sharp retracement, focus shifts to value/defensives |
Bonds | Yields flat or lower, income assets favored | Yields rise, curve steepens, bond funds see outflows |
Crypto | $BTC/ETH rebound, $SOL and alts recover if risk returns | BTC falls toward $110k, ETH $4k, $SOL under pressure |
Commodities | Gold powers higher, oil stable on soft dollar | Gold surges (risk-off) or pulls back if rates rise |
FX | USD tests lower as global carry unwinds, EUR and EMs rally | USD surges, global carry unwinds, pressure on EM FX |
What to Watch
Powell’s language on rate path: A cautious or neutral stance likely extends current market ranges; explicit dovishness could fuel fresh gains in risk assets and crypto.
Tech sector earnings/newsflow: With the S&P 500 so tech-heavy and valuations stretched, sector rollovers could drive wider corrections.
Support/Resistance Levels:
BTC: $110k support/$117k resistance
ETH: $4,000/$4,400
SOL: $200/$235
Conclusion
Record-setting equities, record gold, but crypto in retracement mode and volatility rising—September continues to deliver mixed signals for asset allocators. With Powell on deck and key growth data arriving, traders should stay nimble, hedge risk, and be prepared for meaningful price swings in both traditional and digital markets.
Next update: Powell’s speech, PMI surprises, and tactical positioning for Q4.
Risk Disclaimer: This analysis reflects current market conditions as of August 6, 2025. Rapid changes in economic data, geopolitical developments, or central bank communications could materially alter the outlook. Diversification and appropriate risk management remain essential in the current environment. None of this is financial advice, Wizard Macro Research cannot be held responsible for any losses