Gold & Crypto Market Report – August 19, 2025

Gold is trading at $3,333/oz, a minor decline of -0.05% compared to the previous session but largely range-bound in the last week

Support zone: $3,320; Key resistance: $3,405. Bears control short-term direction, but further downside appears limited without a clear catalyst

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 41 (leaning toward fear), suggesting underlying caution but not panic

Central Bank Policy: Investors await the Fed’s Jackson Hole guidance. Any rhetoric hinting at slower or shallower rate cuts could keep gold range-bound or even see a short-term pullback

Geopolitics: Hopes for Ukraine peace are tempering some risk premia, but a lack of concrete agreement has kept gold’s safe-haven bid intact for now

Inflation and Dollar: Persistent core inflation and a softer US Dollar continue to underpin gold above $3,300. A dollar bounce could challenge this support.

Technical Signal: Bearish, but a bounce from $3,320–$3,333 support is plausible. A close above $3,383 triggers further upside toward $3,405–$3,430; a breakdown below $3,275 opens risk to $3,225.

Gold remains a favoured allocation for investors hedging policy error risks, sticky inflation, or sudden event-driven risk-off moves.

Demand for gold ETFs and digital gold remains robust, especially among investors seeking portfolio insurance and diversification benefits

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing profit-taking, last trading below $115,000 after previously reaching $118,000. Forecasts see near-term support at $115k, with potential for a Q4 rally into the $120–$135k range if Fed dovishness materialises.

BTC volatility is elevated as institutional inflows battle macro-driven corrections. Crypto’s market dominance (BTC share) has slipped from 65% to 59% over the last two months as altcoins attract capital, but Bitcoin remains the benchmark for sentiment

BTC Outlook: Most analyses maintain a bullish structure for late 2025, with end-of-year targets from bullish analysts (e.g., VanEck) as high as $180,000, but warn of continued volatility and possible corrections if macro data or Fed signals disappoint

Fed Pivot/Rate Cuts: Crypto is highly responsive to interest rate pivots. If Powell signals imminent easing at Jackson Hole, expect a relief rally across BTC and ETH. Conversely, a hawkish surprise could push Bitcoin sub-$110k and trigger heavier altcoin liquidations.

Regulatory Evolution: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn nearly $55B in inflows, with growing institutional allocations (including from major universities), confirming the asset's maturation and greater resilience to drawdowns

Macro Uncertainty: Persistent inflation and unresolved risks in traditional markets push both retail and institutional investors toward digital assets as inflation and “black swan” hedges.

Technical Levels: Key support at $110k–$115k; resistance clusters at $118k, $122k, and $130k. A break below support could accelerate to the $105k area; upside could target $122k or higher if macro flows support a rebound

ETH and leading altcoins are also facing slight corrections, but capital rotation from BTC dominance into higher-beta tokens remains visible. Regulatory clarity and institutional adoption are medium-term tailwinds.